Looking for a Co-Founder

June 18th, 2010 by Alex View Comments »
A 19th century architect at the drawing board
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As many of you know, one of my more prominent side projects of late has been HapiMoney, a financial planning site aimed at young professionals. For the last few months, I’ve been developing the site, mostly on my own, on nights and weekends whenever I can find free time. Development has been slow considering I’ve had to teach myself html, css, and php – and now, I’ve reached the limits of what I can reasonably do by myself.

For this reason, I’m looking to scale, and I’m looking for, well, for lack of better words, a “rockstar”. While the term “rockstar” has been incredibly overused over the last few years, it really describes who I want – someone so disgustingly good that it makes you want to be their groupie.

Who (or what) you should be

  • Someone with demonstrable code – a site or side project that you’ve developed.
  • An affinity for design – you’ll notice that HapiMoney isn’t great, and it needs to be improved!
  • Expertise with html, css, mysql, and php for now. Ruby or Django would be a huge plus.
  • Someone who takes pride in clean code and fast prototyping.
  • You should have a brokerage account, and know the basics of personal finance.
  • You should be genuinely interested in personal finance!

Time requirements are very flexible. This is not a full time gig (yet) so if you are looking to just get your feet wet, this might be perfect for you. We all know that selecting a co-founder is a delicate process, so let’s get together over a beer and talk.

If you are interested please email me at alex@hapimoney.com or find me on twitter @alexanderking.

If you know someone who might be interested, please forward this on!

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Economics of Fuel Surcharges

June 2nd, 2010 by Alex View Comments »
I took this photo of a Southwest Airlines Jet ...
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This summer,  I will be traveling to Bulgaria for a few weeks to enjoy the Mediterranean with my girlfriend. We’ve been looking at ticket prices over the last few months, and they’ve been incredibly high. I’ve started looking into why this might be and have come across two reasons.

First, airlines are cutting back capacity; some voluntarily, while others due to strikes. The recession meant cutting back everywhere, and now that demand is jumping, airlines are just happy to have planes packed again. Increased demand with decreased supply equals price increases.

Secondly, airlines have enacted costly fees. In my opinion, these fees are a scam, and are actually hidden from the consumer and labeled as “taxes”. In many cases the fees are almost as much as the flight itself! Let’s have a look:

  1. “Peak Travel Fees” – An extra $30 fee for tickets through Labor Day.
  2. “Fuel Surcharges” – In some cases $100-200 extra per flight for the cost of fuel.

Wait a second, isn’t fuel included in the price of a ticket? I’m certainly not paying for the comfort of stuffing my 6′3″ body into a coach seat, and I would think that the cost of transportation is included in the cost of a ticket. In reality, a fuel “surcharge” should really only apply if you buy your ticket and then after you purchase the ticket the price of fuel skyrockets….in which case, why hasn’t the airline hedged this risk by buying oil futures/options? Or are airlines forgetting that fuel makes up 30% of their operating expense  (look at the 10-k for Southwest if you’re curious) and planning for cost variations is encouraged.

But lets assume that this is expected for a second and that this fuel surcharge includes the FULL price of fuel, how much would  a passenger flying to Sofia expect to pay?

According to TravelMath, the flight to Sofia is just over 4,500 miles.  How Stuff Works estimates that an international flight burns .01 gallons of fuel per mile per person. Lastly, the spot price of jet fuel from the IATA is $2.04 per gallon.

Multiply all of this together and you get $92.50.

Thus, when you take into account the 4 legs of my round trip flight, you get 4 x $30 (for the summer peak fee) and 2 x $92.50 for the fuel fees which equals $305. And indeed, thats about where most of the flights fees are. Granted, most of this is hidden from view, so it’s just an estimate…but it all feels very sneaky to me.

So why does this occur? Flyers are INCREDIBLY price sensitive. Airlines used to offer all sorts of perks from gourmet meals to legroom to juggling midgets for entertainment. But when it comes down to brass tacks, people buy based on price. Allowing these fees encourages airlines to lower ticket prices for advertising and marketing purposes (only $300 to get to Europe! <tiny font> just pay $900 in fees! </tiny font>). And indeed, when you look at the varying prices the “cheapest ticket” is $787 with $490 in fees and the most expensive ticket is $1,179 with $160 in fees.  All told, there’s only $60 difference between the two.

Alternatively, during the fuel scare a few years back many airlines bought long term hedges on oil that allowed them to lock in a certain price on fuel. A few, such as Southwest, were smart and made a killing. Many, such as United, lost millions upon millions of dollars when the price of oil dropped.  I haven’t looked into this in any depth, but its possible that the airlines are locked into these bad contracts and the surcharge just makes whole any difference between the spot price of oil and the exorbitantly high price of oil the airlines paid for it.

My last throwaway hypothesis, and my most diabolical thought, is that these fees allow airlines to collude on prices while still looking competitive. “My price is $787 and my competitors price is $1,179!!”  Both airlines have almost identical total costs while still arguing perfect competition.

What do you guys think? Will competition erode these excess fees?

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Slam Poetry

May 27th, 2010 by Alex View Comments »

There’s something about slam poetry – or poetry in general, really – that inspires me.  It takes the same structure as a good comic performing at a hot night club, weaving a story – but poets go so much deeper. Instead of just the cheap laugh, poets make you laugh, make you cry, and will surprise you in ways that you never thought possible.

One of my favorite slam poets is a guy who goes by Rives.  He’s thin and bald(ing), and has skin so white alabaster is the first word that comes to mind…but he can captivate an audience. He’s performed for Def Jam and even the TED conference a few times, and I thought I’d share a few of his videos here.

The first one is performed at TED and is based on the hypothetical that Rives controlled the internet. It’s a wild ride.

Favorite line:

Some days I’m as shallow as a baking pan, but I still spread for miles in all directions

The next video is about Rives teaching at a high school for the deaf (yes, he’s actually fluent in sign language as well as Greek and Latin).

Favorite line:

Last night, I dreamt that I was little again

and I could hear back then

but the silence

in my house

was deafening.

The last video I’ll show you is him detailing a love story – its hilarious and breathtaking at the same time.

Favorite line:

Maybe, I’m saying maybe, I put on your slippers which were as comfortable as bunnies – because they were bunnies!

Do you have a favorite poet? Poem?

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Coffee Talk

April 30th, 2010 by Alex View Comments »
Brown cup of coffee
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I’m a big fan of meeting entrepreneurs for coffee. Now that I’m doing a lot more financial consulting, I find that it’s harder and harder to stay involved in the “scene”. People in this industry are mortally afraid of new technologies like twitter, blogging or web technologies, so sometimes I find myself straying from my startup roots.  Thats why I’m thankful for being able to work with AccelGolf, and that’s why I love to meet up with other startup guys.

Today, I had back to back meetings with some interesting guys at the Andala Cafe in central. First I met with Waldron Faulkner of GraphEdge who is working on his pivot and needed some marketing help and introductions. Waldron is a passionate guy who’s got a lot of work ahead of him, but isn’t afraid of it. Waldron inspires me because making those pivots is hard, and sometimes barreling ahead is the easiest thing to do, when in reality, it’s the worst thing you can do.

Next, I met with Dustin Dolginow of Atlas Ventures. Dustin’s a newbie to both Boston and the VC world, so he’s trying to get his feet under him. As coincidence might have it, he’s also a fellow Kansan – from my same town too! Startup guys please welcome him to Boston, and if you are interested in meeting a junior VC with the ear of some pretty powerful guys, let me know and I’ll put you in touch. Dustin inspires me because he’s in a whole new world and he’s attacking it with a vibrance and energy that we should all aspire to – and he’s a genuinely nice guy.

Ah coffee talk…

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HR Failures – Self Review Processes

April 20th, 2010 by Alex View Comments »
Frustration
Image by beau-foto via Flickr

Several friends of mine work at a nice boutique consulting firm in the Boston area which typically promotes everyone once a year depending on their performance.  As such, they are also in the midst of review season whereby their bosses will critique their performance and they, in turn, will also evaluate their performance.

The self-review packet is eleven pages, consisting of mostly prose responses whereby the writer will elaborate on their different core competencies and skill sets, preferably using examples from their project work. Each question has three parts, asking the writer to elaborate on: their successes, their challenges, and their goals for the future.

The reviewer, too, has to write about the reviewee, grading each of these criterion and carefully deciding on why or why not this person deserves a promotion.

The full review packet, mind you, is incredibly thorough – a ton of thought was clearly put into this process – and the self review packet, with due respect to it’s creators (who obviously labored intensively over it’s creation), sucks.

Why, pray tell does this process stink?

  1. There is a HUGE waste in productivity.  Each Self-Review packet takes on average over 5 hours to complete. And each review of this person takes another several hours (lets guesstimate 3), meaning that for each employee of the firm, 8 hours are spent on this. It’s a small firm, and only about 100 or so of the employees are reviewed, so that’s 800 man-hours of time. Each of these people also bill out at an hourly rate (for the most part), and I can tell you, those rates ain’t cheap. Starting employees are right around $200/hr, so let’s assume, conservatively, that the average rate is $250/hr for all employees. That means the firm will lose $200,000 from the process.
  2. The questions ask, nay, BEG for bullshit responses. When, for example, in a section on Self-Management, when a question asks if you are mature, responsible, understanding of project needs, what rational person in their right mind isn’t going to BS this? And if every response is BS, what do you think the likelihood of a quality actionable self-evaluation is? Not very high.
  3. Once you fill it out, nobody looks at it again. In fact, the only reason to keep old reviews is so that you can copy and paste entire sections from the last review into the new one! What’s the point of asking for goals for the next year, and then not comparing your results?
  4. It measures the wrong things. This process rewards generic, BS responses, while harming individuals who recognize they need to improve in certain areas. You need to be good, but not cocky, just enough above average to get that promotion, but don’t remind anyone of any flaws that you might have.  The point of a self-review is so that your bosses can see if your views of yourself are in any way different than their views of yourself. Any areas where there is a huge disconnect should be explored in greater detail. ie. If I think my Excel skills are piping hot, but my boss thinks I’ve got the Excel acumen of a 3rd grader, then that begs for action.

So what’s a better process?

Listen up people in HR, because it’s going to blow your mind. Less is more!

Any self review must take into account the 4 criticisms above. It must be:

  1. Short
  2. Elicit Truth
  3. Actionable
  4. Measure the right qualities

So here’s the ideal review process, IMO:

The reviewee will get a form with upwards of 10 different qualities, each with its own sliding scale from 1 to 10. This can be things like “Excel Skills”, “Presentation Skills”, “Client Interaction”, “Managing Employees”, etc., and the user will rank themselves 1 to 10.  They also should be required to mark 2 or 3 skills that they would like to improve upon over the next year. Lastly, there should be ONE (and only one), comment box which would allow someone to list the projects they worked on since the last review, and any thoughts about that specific project that they might have.

The reviewer will also get a form, with the sliding scale from 1 to 10 for each of the qualities of the reviewee. They will not know how the reviewee reviewed themselves, on each of the categories but they will be able to see the comment box with the projects and thoughts the individual had. They will then rank the reviewee, write a brief comment about the employee (project based comments) and then submit their review.

The HR department will then sift through all of these reviews and only look for 2 things:

  1. Quality: Is the reviewee below a certain threshold of quality (let’s say below a 5)?
  2. Perceived Differences: Are there differences between what the reviewer and reviewee’s scored?

Any score differences will necessitate further elaboration from the employee. Any employee that passes the quality threshold and the perceived differences threshold will pass directly through the system, and will be eligible for a promotion.

Let see if it matches up to the criticisms:

  1. It’s definitely short – a sliding scale, 3 check boxes, and a comment box…probably 45 minutes at most to fill out.
  2. It elicits truth through a bidding-like mechanism – the reviewee only is eligible immediately for a promotion if their scores are in line with their reviewers.
  3. It’s possibly actionable – by selecting 3 areas where you would like to improve, you can check your scores from last year to compare to this year.
  4. Measures the right qualities – this is more up to the different categories that are chosen by HR, but I believe that a ranking scale is far superior to a prose review.

What do you guys think? Where can the self evaluation be improved?

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TechStars startup AccelGolf and yours truly

March 24th, 2010 by Alex View Comments »
Image representing AccelGolf as depicted in Cr...
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Since leaving WebNotes a few months ago, I’ve been on the lookout for another fun startup to help out with. For months, I was a networking whore, meeting as many of the best and brightest as I could in the Boston startup community. During my search, I was lucky enough to encounter William Sulinski, CEO and founder of AccelGolf, a recent TechStars graduate company.

As luck would have it, AccelGolf is in need of some marketing assistance, and William was kind enough to offer me the gig.  Over the next few months, I’ll be helping out with some strategic planning, implementation and customer development work.

I’m still keeping the day job for now,  but I’m thrilled to be working with another startup, especially one as well positioned as AccelGolf.

For those of you who haven’t heard of it, check out this great golf tool. It’s a cellphone app that functions as part rangefinder (so you always know your yardage), part statistics machine, allowing you to understand your game at a whole new level.

I’ll keep you guys posted on how things go.

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Tricked you!

March 1st, 2010 by Alex View Comments »

I got an astounding full 4 clicks for my post on Brownian Motion :-) . Truth be told, I knew it would be small, and I guess I’m surprised I tricked even 4 of you into learning about something this nerdy.

In other news, I had my first shopping experience at the Russian Baazar today – and might I say it was an amazing experience. One of the worst things about living in the Northeast compared to the Midwest is how terrible grocery store produce is. And typically to get good fresh fruits and vegetables, you have to go to a store like Trader Joes (or Harvest Co-op for me), which typically run 15-30% more expensive than a place like Star Market. But now, I’ve been introduced to the Baazzar which features produce similar to the high end grocery stores at prices half of what they are in Star Market. I don’t know how they do it, and it’s probably some sort of illegal front, but I love it and will continue to go back.

A Primer in Brownian Motion

February 26th, 2010 by Alex View Comments »
Brownian MotionThree different views of Brownian motion, with...

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Every once in a while, my job affords me the opportunity to learn something really cool – granted in a very nerdy kind of way.  Recently, I learned one method for modeling stock prices and interest rates called Geometric Brownian Motion (first used in particle theory, but later used in financial instruments). This conversation might get a little technical, but I’ll start first with a conceptual description before moving into the math. For those who are uninterested in the nerdier parts of finance, feel free to skip this post :-)

In theory, it is nearly impossible to predict what stock prices are going to be in the future – if someone knew, they would be very very very wealthy (or in jail for using illegal methods).  If you know of a legal way, let me know and we can quit our jobs and trade stocks for the rest of our lives! But just because stocks are unpredictable doesn’t mean there aren’t ways to try to figure out what these prices over time might look like, especially if you are trying hundreds or thousands of iterations to test for averages, highs, and lows. For instance, what are the odds that Microsoft’s stock price will hit 40, or the odds that it will hit 20? We do this by way of probability and statistics.

For instance, we can probably guess that a stock like General Electric will likely stay around the $15-$16 range that it’s been at for the last month.  Maybe there is a 50% chance that it rises a bit tomorrow, and maybe there is a 50% chance that it falls, but we can overwhelmingly say that it’s probably not going to drop to $1.

GE Logo

Image via Wikipedia

To demonstrate this, lets take that GE stock and try to figure out what one path of stock prices over the next week might look like. Take out a coin and flip it: if it comes out heads, add $0.25 to the price of GE’s shares, and if it comes out tails, subtract $0.25. Now repeat this process 10 times. You should have a series of prices that looks somewhat plausible – perhaps GE’s price will trend upwards, or perhaps it will trend downwards, but more likely, it will look like what financial engineers call a “random walk“, or a seemingly random series of prices – sometimes moving up, sometimes moving down.

So, to start to define this better, we know that tomorrow’s stock price will likely equal today’s stock price plus or minus some small but random amount. Note that random is the key word here. Now, that’s just using a coin to figure out our probability of stock increases and decreases with a 50% chance of rising by a quarter, and a 50% chance of falling by a quarter. These are certainly not the only rises and falls that could happen, and things are hardly ever assigned a 50% probability.  For instance, what happens if the US government black lists GE and refuses to ever buy any GE products again? The stock would tank! A low probability, for sure, but it could happen.

Thus, we need a more sophisticated way of doing this. Luckily, statistics has something called a “Normal Distribution” which will provide us with more granularity than just a binary flip of the coin to figure out how stock prices might change. This will also allow us to factor in those seemingly low probability events (like GE tanking). A normal distribution looks something like this:

Sample extrema can be used for normality testi...
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What this graph says is that most of the frequency data for a particular sample will cluster around the mean in the center (the symbol that looks like µ). As you get further and further away from the center and head to the extremes, the frequency of certain values becomes less and less. For instance, take the average height of a man, which is about 5′ 10″ in the US. Most guys you meet will probably be about 5′10″. There are going to be several that are 5′ 11″ or 5′ 9″, but you will very rarely find someone who is 5′1″ or 6′6″ – those people are on the extremes.

So to end the conceptual part of this discussion before getting into the modeling, to figure out one possibility tomorrows price,  we simply take today’s price and then add some normally distributed (around a mean of zero) change (be it 0 or -.1 or +2), and then repeat for the day after and so on.

An Example using Excel:

You’ll have 3 input’s to this model:

  1. the current stock price
  2. the standard deviation of the stock price ( =stdev(stockprices))
  3. the time units for which you want to make this prediction (days or 1/360, weeks or 1/52 , months or 1/12, etc) – make sure to stay consistent between the units of time for 2 and 3.

Now your formula should look like this:

P1 =  P0 + Stdev * Sqrt(time) * normsinv(rand() )

What does this mean? To directly translate: take the standard deviation of the stock, multiply by the square root of time, then multiply by a random normally distributed number (the function rand() generates a random number of uniform distribution between 0 and 1 and normsinv takes this as a probability and maps that to a normal distribution – thus, if rand() returns .60, normsinv says, given a probability of 60% where does that fall on a curve with mean zero and standard distribution of one), and finally add this amount to today’s stock price.

The one thing that threw me off at first was the multiplication by the square root of time, however this is basically due to the standard deviation’s units being in price/(square root of time), so to cancel units you have to multiply by the same factor.

I’ve attached a sample Excel spreadsheet which demonstrates this process. Just hit F9 to see how the price of GE’s stock changes over time. Brownian Motion.xls

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Waiting on hold, and other stupid things that I do

February 16th, 2010 by Alex View Comments »
Sprint Nextel

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As a business owner, I would always wish that my customers or users would email me feedback regardless whether I asked for it. It’s nice to hear when you are doing things well, and its great (though not pleasant) to hear when you screw up. Screwing up allows you to fix things, and more often than not, your customers will thank you.

As such, I do stupid things, like wait on hold to make silly requests – like when Comcast didn’t offer CNBC, or Red Zone, or a whole host of other channels to subscribers in Cambridge, I called to request it (and waited for 30 minutes).  Lo-and-behold, 4 months later Comcast added these stations. Do I really believe that my feedback spurred the change? No. Do I believe that enough people called to complain? Yes, and that’s why I do these things – the marginal utility of my call.

That’s why I just sent an email to Sprint to request that they start carrying the Nexus One. They’ll probably ignore my one email, but maybe, just maybe, they’ll get enough requests to realize they have an opportunity. Maybe they’ll understand that the reason they’ve been bleeding so many customers is because to-date, they’ve offered an inferior product with no competitive advantage.  They are a me too player, which lags in innovation…so far.

If Sprint is serious about winning their customers back, that means leapfrogging their competition: actually deploying a 4G network instead of over-promising and under-delivering, and also deploying only top of the line handsets which could handle this network, handsets currently only found on ATT or Verizon or T-Mobile. High end used to be the bread and butter of Nextel before Sprint watered it down with crap…so I have hope that maybe, just maybe, Sprint will find its way.

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Thoughts on Elance – Outsourcing to India

February 15th, 2010 by Alex View Comments »
India

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For the last 3 weeks, I’ve been working with a firm out of India to help me with the design of my financial planning site.  So far, things are going relatively well, but there have been some bumps along the way. For those of you interested, here’s what to look out for.

Elance, for those who don’t know, is a site that connects freelancers with people in need of professional work.  I was able to post some basic specs, and a whole host of firms were able to bid on this work.

Choosing a Contractor

This really is going to be highly dependent on what you are looking for (and will seem a little discriminatory).  Keep in mind that you get what you pay for, so the better developers are  going to cost you more than $20/hr. As per some basic discrimination, avoid all developers in the US who charge $20/hr or less -cost of living alone in the US is phenomenally high compared to developing countries such that a similarly priced US and foreign firm will tell you something about what you will get back.  And if you are looking for something extremely high quality, avoid India and Pakistan.  Developers from this region are looking to cut corners and put something out as quickly as possible, regardless of quality. Something you also need to consider will be your own technical and product management skills. If you haven’t overseen a developer before, you might want to consider shelling out some more moolah.

Elance also provides samples of work from each firm, customer reviews, and a skill-set testing system so you can get a basic idea of what each firm can do. Before choosing a firm, make sure that the firm has taken Elance’s tests (instead of self rating which obviously is going to lead to arbitrarily high scores), and has received high marks from previous customers.

So why did I choose India?

Because the developer had ton a TON of work previously completed via Elance and had received mostly positive reviews. Also, per my own advice, I am getting a very alpha version out as quickly as possible so that I can test before I spend too much money. I’ve spec’d out what I consider a minimum viable product for initial feedback, and only once I feel we’ve developed a sustainable idea will I find a higher quality firm (or co-founder). Moreover there’s something to be said about having worked with Indian firms before, and having worked extremely closely with a wide variety of highly skilled developers here in the States.

My dream firm was this studly Ukrainian team that unfortunately would have cost me about 3 times as much. They were responsive, technically savvy, and honest about their qualifications and time needs. Sadly, for now I need something cheap and dirty, and am willing to sacrifice quality for cost effectiveness.

The Bumps

So far, communication has been the largest issue so far.  After I first selected the firm, when my project was being handed over from the marketing team to the developers, the firm stopped responding. Flat, cold stopped responding. I basically had to threaten to take my work elsewhere before someone got back to me and a flurry of activity began.  Luckily, the initial mockups of the homepage were of high enough quality to justify sticking with them.

My other issue with communication is around dialogue. I’m used to asking developers a question and getting an answer with a few options as well as a recommendation. This doesn’t occur with the Indians – instead, I ask “would this navigation work better horizontally instead of vertically?” and a day later they just respond “we have changed the navigation tabs”.

My last issue is one of quality. You can tell that some of the aesthetics are rushed, and often I have to ask for 4 or 5 iterations before something looks like it should’ve the first time. The code looks clean enough so far, mostly because I think they are using 3rd party open sourced plugins.  I’ll see how the custom code ends up looking, and hopefully that will be clean as well.

Final Thoughts

I’ll definitely follow up on this after the project is done, but so far so good. Here’s what I’ve learned:

1) Micromanage, micromanage, micromanage: you have to be on top of these guys day in and day out. Every week begins with me asking what the plan for the week is, and then for every iteration I critique and immediately send back my feedback. Typically, I hate to micromanage as I think it is hugely inefficient, but this is one of the exceptions to the rule.

2) Everything takes twice as long as you plan for: the typical adage is that it should cost twice as much as well, but this is a fixed bid. We’ll see about how much follow on work costs.

3) Know EXACTLY what you want: You can’t assume that the firm will go above and beyond to wow you, so you must have your project perfectly specified and planned.

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